2013-2014 Season

[Tes]

What would be the real choker is if we don't respond, and then find City slip up in one of the next two games.

I think we will use the Chelsea result today to make sure we focus on the job and make sure we get the win, however we need to do it, as you would have to put West Ham and Villa down as more likely to get a draw at City, than you would have done Norwich getting a point at Chelsea, especially after their result against us last Sunday. It's what we love about football.

[Tes]

Additionally a win tomorrow sees us seal 2nd place, at worst. 

It may also be an advantage for us now we're not defending our 1st place position. We're back to chasing, and the pressure's reduced. Everyone's talking about how City are favourites.

[the dude abides]

edward, if we have to beat Newcastle by twelve, on that final day, then so-be-it.

6 or 7 by half-time.....and we are set.   Brendan can follow his wet dreams and play a 2-4-4 formation (with migrolet overlapping when we have the ball).

mind you, with no titus bramble marshalling the bar-codes defence, things are more difficult than they might have been.

re today - why oh why oh why, could Brendan not have done what norwich did

norwich AWAY at chelsea, against their main team.... draw......while we, at home, against their second string outfit, fuk up.

I could shake brendan and gerrard, I really could.    All the hard work we had done, thrown away.

right, Palace, let's be having yae.

[the dude abides]

of course, if sunderland had held on to win 2-1 away at City two weeks ago, and not conceded that late 88th minute City equaliser, we would still be in cruise control.

very costly goal.

[Tes]

Taken from: http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/chelsea/most-clubs-would-love-chelseas-problems-30241984.html

For a bit of context, it's worth mentioning that Chelsea will be top of the Premier League if they beat Norwich this afternoon. It's the best home record against the worst away one so it's hard to see any other outcome.

This is from the Irish Independant, not a Chelsea fan site.

Believe. Football's kick in the balls for one is a crowning moment of glory for another.

Let's beat Palace and put even more pressure back on City, and then see if they can react.

Silva is unfit having just returned from injury, and Aguero is injured. If they can shut Dzeko out (who I wouldn't say no to us having if there's the slightest chance in the Summer), then the impossible could become more possible.

Villa have ended their losing run, there's no pressure on them at all and being away from the critical Villa Park hordes could work in their favour.

They've only won 6 times at home this season, but 4 times away, (suggesting they may be more comfortable away from Villa Park) including Arsenal, Southampton and Sunderland (who have only been beaten by Fulham - 1st game of season, Hull and West Ham outside of the top seven teams). So an away win at Sunderland was no mean feat by either Villa or West Ham.

West Ham may have only won away 5 times in the league, but they include a win at Spurs, Cardiff and Sunderland (both high pressure wins at the time) and they held Chelsea to a 0-0 at Stamford Bridge. Their away wins were in Jan, Feb, March, (they missed out in April) so they're due another away win.

And Andy Carroll has a good record against City.

[Tes]

City have failed to score in the league 3 times this season, but not since 8th February and against the unlikeliest of teams in Norwich City. They're due a blank.

Also they've only been involved in two 0-0 this season, the last, that same game against Norwich. They're due a 0-0.

We've also only failed to score 3 times in the league, but the last one was the last game, so we're not due another over the next two games.

We've not been involved in a 0-0 at all this season, so the odds are long on that happening in the next two games.

We've kept 10 clean sheets this season, but not in the last 4 games. We've only gone 5 games or more without a clean sheet once this season, so again we're due one.

Palace have failed to score at home 8 times in the league this season. They've also kept 7 clean sheets at home.

[Martinmarx]

I posted several days ago that I was worried Everton were running out of steam, and I think that's whats happened.

We have to a degree, but then it's only to be expected. We have a core of probably only 14/15 players that you would be happy to select. The rest are quite literally just making up the numbers.
We may not have European competition, but our players have had international games and travel. I realise other teams have that, but City and Chelsea have a deeper squad to utilise. We barely have a first 11 + 5 subs.

In the first 5 games in which Suarez was missing, we drew 2-2 away at Swansea and lost 1-0 at home to Southampton. Just one of his goals in either game would see us with at least an extra point, and potentially the title.

I don't think you're bitter at all, Martin. We never in a million years dreamed we would be talking about a title challenge of any sort, never mind a chance of winning it this season. With the huge surprise comes even greater hope, and to be 5 points ahead of Chelsea with three games to go got us believing and hoping against all logic. And with that comes crushing disappointment and frustration if we can't take our chance.

We massively overachieved to get into that position. To see it out required experience, another thing we are massively lacking in at the moment compared to Chelsea and City, both squads and management. To pull it off required even further over achievement. We may or may not eventually win it. Who knows. There are 2 games and six points to play for. Unexpected results do happen.

Before the season started there were 6 teams that had finished ahead of us for the last two seasons running, and that happened under two different managers. We haven't finished 5th or better for the last four seasons. 5 of the 6 teams had finished ahead of us for three or more seasons running, and three for even longer.

Simply to get UEFA Cup football we had to somehow finish ahead of a third of those teams. For a CL qualifier it meant finishing ahead of half of those teams. What we're actually going to at worse is finish ahead of 4 of those 6 teams, possibly even 5.

That's the scale of the achievement to be challenging.

As I've said before though, you have to learn to challenge for the league first, before actually going one better. City have the experience of both challenging and winning, as do Chelsea. We have neither.
Even though we got ourselves 5 points ahead, it's that final part of the home straight is the hardest to negotiate, especially without experience.

Think of a 1500M race. If you kick for home too early on the straight you risk being overtaken just before the line by someone who has timed their kick for home perfectly. If you leave it too late then the finishing line appears and you've run out of track.

This is the manager's first challenge for any trophy of meaning. Nevermind one like the league that takes a lot of skill and experience to cross the line in first. Next season, or the season after, if we find ourselves in the same position as we did before the Chelsea game he will understand that avoiding defeat, picking up that point that meant two further wins and City simply can't catch us, is actually more important than trying to win the game for the sake of winning the game. Experience teaches you pragmatism. You learn to do what is needed, which may be different to what you'd ideally prefer.

We now have a new test and a new lesson, and that's to come back from the disappointment and however we do it, win the last two games. It may not be enough for this season, but learning that lesson may mean it's exactly what we need next season, and the experience of managing it this season could be the difference next season or the season after and by achieving it this season, we would give ourselves the experience to draw on in the future.

What would be the real choker is if we don't respond, and then find City slip up in one of the next two games.

Very good post there Tes. What really hurts me though is that we only lost 1 game since SB on Boxing day. 1 game and it potentially takes away everything we achieved every since. No team in the league is close to our run during that time so just like the two defeats at Christmas, I feel we're very had done by to be honest.

I have no problem saying we've been, by far, the best TEAM this season. For the past 10 or so games City's depended solely on individual brilliance (Silva at Hull or Toure at Palace) to win them the games. It isn't over til it's over. I just hope we can get fired up for the game tomorrow night. It would be such a tragedy if we collapsed now.

Come on you redmen!!!

[the dude abides]

Very good post there Tes. What really hurts me though is that we only lost 1 game since SB on Boxing day. 1 game and it potentially takes away everything we achieved every since. No team in the league is close to our run during that time so just like the two defeats at Christmas, I feel we're very had done by to be honest.

I feel exactly the same, Martin

I have been lamenting how despite that long run of victories, we have lost merely once, and yet it is not enough.

life seems so bloody unfair.

[the dude abides]

if only we had a fresh set of legs, especially a fresh Suarez, we could hammer Palace and Newcastle.

but as Tes said earlier, Liverpool (and City and Chelsea) have all looked tired and jaded in the last month or so.

we had no squad to fall back on.....City and Chelsea did.

mind you, on the issue of Chelsea, after their efforts at Anfield, I am delighted to see them feck up in both the Champions League and the Premiership trophy hunt.

The Russian owner must be questioning value for money.

[Tes]

Our core squad this season showing number of PL games started:

1. Mignolet  34
2. Johnson  27
3. Flanagan  21
4. Skrtel  34
5. Toure  15
6. Sakho  16
7. Agger  15
8. Gerrard  31
9. Henderson  34
10. Lucas  19
11. Allen  13
12. Coutinho  28
13. Sterling  22
14. Suarez  31
15 Sturridge  24

16. Enrique  6
17. Cissokho  12
18. Moses  6
19. Aspas  5

20. Jones  0

I wrote them out in those groupings before I'd even looked up the amount of PL games each had started - the squad is that easy to select. The only contentious one may be Allen 13 starts to Cissokho's 12, but I think it's pretty obvious that Allen would have had more starts if he'd been fit for selection for all 36 games.

Compare that to the pools of talent that Chelsea and City have to select from - and to think we're 2nd in the league, only on goal difference, with only 2 games to go (1 in Chelsea's case).

[the dude abides]

thanks for that data.

yes, it has been an amazing performance from that 15 man core squad.

I guess the camel that broke the horse's back, was losing Henderson.   We could not cover over that loss.

We needed him badly against Chelsea.

[Martinmarx]

I feel exactly the same, Martin

I have been lamenting how despite that long run of victories, we have lost merely once, and yet it is not enough.

life seems so bloody unfair.

Indeed, and even more so if we're to finish runner's up on 86 points for the 2nd time while, at the same time it'll be City's 2nd title on GD since the Arabs arrived with their money. Unfair doesn't half say it.

[Martinmarx]

thanks for that data.

yes, it has been an amazing performance from that 15 man core squad.

I guess the camel that broke the horse's back, was losing Henderson.   We could not cover over that loss.

We needed him badly against Chelsea.

Not sure I agree Dude seeing as we were playing to win the game I'm not sure his qualities was the missing link, so to speak. I was more disappointed in Coutinho's inability to rise to the occasion.

Yeah, thanks for the data, Tes. I really really think Allen's starting to show his worth. Has been one of our more consistent performers during the past 6-8 weeks. Long may it continue. I'm also a tad taken aback by the fact Sakho's been our 2nd highest performer in the CB position.

[Tes]

I feel exactly the same, Martin

I have been lamenting how despite that long run of victories, we have lost merely once, and yet it is not enough.

life seems so bloody unfair.

It's one of the reasons that at no point should we have been regarded as favourites. We lacked the consistency over the long stretch. We may have peaked just a touch too early, or lacked the experience to see it over the line, as we have lacked experience in seeing out games at times this season. We had to peak when we did in order to put ourselves in with a chance, but with a bit more consistency in the first 13 games we could have peaked a little later and still been up there but with a bit more left to see it through - not that we haven't yet.

First 13 games:

WWWDLWWDWLWDL - ( the results in bold include) draws away at Newcastle (2 goals scored) and Everton (3 goals scored) and defeats away to Arsenal (2 goals conceded) and Hull City (3 goals conceded, 1 scored)

[Tes]

Not sure I agree Dude seeing as we were playing to win the game I'm not sure his qualities was the missing link, so to speak. I was more disappointed in Coutinho's inability to rise to the occasion.

I think with Hendo being much more mobile than Lucas it would have given our midfield a different dimension, with the possibility of more forward runs, or runs to take players away and create a bit of space.

Totally agree about Coutinho, though we have to remember he's only young. I'm sure it will come, and he got us out of a hole against City.